Valhalla Range, West Kootenay · Photo: Murray Foubister, CC BY-SA 2.0
EDITORIAL · B.C. VOTES 2026 · ELECTION WEEK, 16 TO 21 OCTOBER
B.C.’s toss-up seats rose from 11 to 19 in five days, and the backcountry seats held still. If it continues, the Lower Mainland and the Island will decide whether public access is written into law.
Between 338Canada’s updates of 16 and 21 October, nine seats moved into toss-up, all of them in the Lower Mainland or on Vancouver Island. No seat in the Kootenays, the Cariboo or the North changed its rating. Most of the moves are a point or two, inside the model’s margins. Here is what moved, region by region, and what each outcome would mean for public access if it continues.
By the end of Tuesday, 20 October, 710,713 British Columbians had already voted, about one registered voter in five by our arithmetic.1 The next day 338Canada, which turns the published polls into a projection for every riding, updated its numbers. Set against its version of 16 October, the change is small in the totals and large in one place.2,3
Toss-ups 11 → 19
All 93 ridings, one square each, coloured by 338Canada’s rating and sorted from safe Conservative to safe NDP. Orange lines join the 13 seats that changed rating.
Hover or tap a square to see the riding.
Most of these moves are a point or two, inside the model’s margins, and a projection is not a result. But where the race moved matters for whether British Columbians keep their way onto public land.
01 338Canada’s projection barely moved across the province. The NDP gained a point of the vote, and the Conservatives gained two seats.
16 Oct
21 Oct
The NDP’s gains came mostly where the Conservatives lead comfortably; Cariboo-Chilcotin went from a 43-point Conservative lead to 42. The Conservatives’ smaller gains came in NDP seats, where a point can change a rating. Two more seats came within eight points, taking the close list from 37 to 39.2,4
02 Four pollsters published from 14 to 21 October, and all four put the Conservatives ahead. They disagree about which way the race is moving.
Leger9–12 Oct · decided
Green 9
Angus Reid15–19 Oct · decided and leaning
Green 8
Innovative Research15–19 Oct · decided
Green 12
Mainstreet17–18 Oct · undecided removed
Green 14.6
The Angus Reid Institute calls its three-point gap “a margin that amounts to a statistical tie”; its lead was five points in early October.6 Innovative Research says “The Conservatives have pulled into a clear lead.”7 Mainstreet has the Greens at 14.6 per cent and says “this may be simple ballot confusion.”8
03 Surrey, the Fraser Valley and the Interior drifted toward the NDP. Vancouver, Burnaby and the Island drifted toward the Conservatives.
Prince George, Cariboo
Richmond, Delta
Fraser Valley
Surrey
Okanagan, Interior
The North
Kootenays
Vancouver Island
North Shore, Sea to Sky
Vancouver
Burnaby, Tri-Cities
B.C., schematic, not to scale
The Kootenays did not move at all, and the North barely moved.2
04 338Canada moved nine seats into toss-up in five days. None of them is in the Interior, the Kootenays or the North.
Into toss-up
North IslandVancouver Island
Con. leaning→Toss-up
Con. +3 → Con. +2
No comparison yet
Burnaby NorthBurnaby, New Westminster and the Tri-Cities
NDP leaning→Toss-up
NDP +5 → NDP +3
Coquitlam-Burke MountainBurnaby, New Westminster and the Tri-Cities
Con. leaning→Toss-up
Con. +4 → Con. +2
West Vancouver-Sea to SkyNorth Shore, Sea to Sky and Sunshine Coast
Green leaning→Toss-up
A Green seat; the Conservatives are the challengers.
No comparison yet
Other rating changes
Saanich North and the IslandsVancouver Island
Green likely→Green leaning
The Green leader is ahead; the Conservatives and the NDP are tied behind her.
Langley-WillowbrookFraser Valley, Langley and Maple Ridge
Con. likely→Con. leaning
Con. +9 → Con. +7
No comparison yet
The crowding came from both sides: four NDP seats tightened toward the Conservatives, and three seats leaning Conservative tightened toward the NDP. Four existing toss-ups also changed leader without changing rating: Cowichan Valley, Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Burnaby South-Metrotown are now dead even, and Vancouver-Yaletown tipped to a one-point Conservative lead.2
05 Where public access is the local issue, the projection held still. Each Boundary and Kootenay seat moved a point or less, and none changed its rating.
Kootenay CentralToss-up
NDP +2 → NDP +2
Gordon SkulnecConservative candidate, 17 years in the RCMPTold the BC Wildlife Federation he supports legislating public access to Crown land.
Brittny AndersonBC NDP MLA, Minister of State for Rural CommunitiesIn 68 speaking turns this Parliament, she never raised forest roads.
Boundary-SimilkameenCon. leaning
Con. +8 → Con. +7
Donegal WilsonConservative candidateRan the BC Snowmobile Federation.
Roly RussellBC NDP candidateLed the government’s rural development file; answered the snowmobilers’ survey on his own.
Columbia River-RevelstokeCon. leaning
Con. +8 → Con. +7
Scott McInnisConservative MLA since 2024Has taken the riding’s closed backcountry roads to the Legislature.
Andrea DunlopBC NDP candidateNo public statement on the Rady Creek road, in her riding, that we could find.
Kootenay-MonasheeNDP leaning
NDP +5 → NDP +4
Warren MirkoConservative candidateFounded the Public Land Use Society to keep public land open.
Steve MorissetteBC NDP MLA, Parliamentary Secretary for Rural DevelopmentOn the 33 forest roads his riding has lost since 2020, we found no word from him.
Kootenay Central is still a toss-up, unchanged. Two seats that did move are backcountry country too: Mid Island-Pacific Rim, where the Alberni Valley got in and out on logging roads for more than two weeks when wildfire closed Highway 4 in 2023, and Vernon-Lumby, “sled, hunting and logging country, reached by forest roads.”14,15 The rest of the seats now deciding the government are ones where our comparisons turned on a hospital, a school, housing or a crossing.3
06 If the movement continues, each outcome means something different for public access. Neither party’s costing funds the roads and trails.
Access written into law?
Money for forest service roads?
Recreation Sites and Trails funded?
“guarantee public access to Crown land, beaches and backcountry for all British Columbians in law”
“…protect 30% of B.C.’s land by 2030 … and preserve public access.”
By our estimate a road-and-recreation line would cost about $29.6 million a year, roughly 1.5 per cent of the Conservative plan’s contingency cut.19 The NDP government’s plan for about 400 parcels of Crown land committed for transfer never mentions public access across 40 pages.23 Target 8 is the Province’s own goal for “high-value recreation access and resource roads.”22
07 In our view, the backcountry’s case now has to be made in the seats that are moving. Those voters will decide whether access is written into law.
The Conservative plan is, in our view, the better of the two for the backcountry, because it alone would write access into law, and it still needs a budget line for the roads.21 If you know voters in the new toss-ups, send them our rating of every candidate and our guide to the close seats, and ask their candidates who would own Target 8.24
The backcountry seats held still this week. The seats that moved will decide what happens to public access.
08 By Tuesday night, 710,713 British Columbians had voted. The rest of the province is scheduled to vote on Saturday, 24 October.
The early voters voted on the numbers of 16 October. The rest will vote on a projection that has tightened where government is decided, and the change could reverse by Saturday.25
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B.C.’s toss-up seats rose from 11 to 19 in five days, and the backcountry seats held still. If it continues, the Lower Mainland and the Island will decide whether public access is written into law.
Between 338Canada’s updates of 16 and 21 October, the Conservatives held 45 per cent and the NDP rose to 42. The projected seats went the other way, 54 to 37.
Nine seats moved into toss-up: Burnaby North, Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, Delta North, Richmond-Steveston, Vancouver-Langara, West Vancouver-Sea to Sky, Ladysmith-Oceanside, Mid Island-Pacific Rim and North Island. No seat in the Kootenays, the Cariboo or the North changed its rating.
Most moves are a point or two, inside the model’s margins. But the seats deciding the government are not the ones where roads are closing.
Lorne Doerkson’s Conservatives would guarantee access in law but fund no roads or trails. David Eby’s NDP would “preserve public access” inside an uncosted 30 by 30. Neither funds Target 8.
If you know voters in those seats, send them this.
🔗 backcountry.cx/editorials/bc-election-week-shift/
#BCpoli #BCElection #BCVotes2026 #PublicAccess
Sources
- ↩ Elections BC, “Advance Voting Turnout, 2026 Provincial General Election,” preliminary, by electoral district and day, updated 21 October 2026 at 9:45 a.m. PDT, with figures through 20 October: 137,832 on 16 October; 201,774 on 17 October; 104,929 on 18 October; 128,178 on 19 October; 138,000 on 20 October; 710,713 in all, against 3,738,182 registered voters as of 14 October. The share, about 19 per cent, is our arithmetic. elections.bc.ca (PDF)
- ↩ 338Canada, British Columbia provincial projection, updates of 16 October and 21 October 2026, and its 93 riding pages, read on 18 October and on 21 October 2026 at 3:25 p.m. PDT: projected vote and seats with their ranges, the odds of each outcome, and each riding’s projection, margin and rating. 338Canada is a model built on published polls, not a poll. Every change, count, average and regional grouping on this page is our arithmetic on the two versions. 338canada.com/bc
- ↩ Backcountry Coalition, “In 2024 the NDP kept its majority by 22 votes,” our guide to the close ridings and the candidate comparisons in them. backcountry.cx
- ↩ Backcountry Coalition, “B.C. Votes 2026,” our election hub: all 93 ridings with their projection and candidates, and the close seats, counted as those where the NDP and the Conservatives are within eight points or the projection calls a toss-up. backcountry.cx
- ↩ Leger, B.C. election poll, released 14 October 2026: 1,000 people online, 9 to 12 October; decided voters, Conservatives 42, BC NDP 40, BC Greens 9. leger360.com
- ↩ Angus Reid Institute, “B.C. Election 2026: BC Conservatives lead slightly as two-way race narrows and campaign enters final days,” 20 October 2026: 793 people online, 15 to 19 October; decided and leaning voters, Conservatives 46, BC NDP 43, BC Greens 8. Its wave of 1 to 3 October had 48 and 43. angusreid.org
- ↩ Innovative Research Group, “BC Conservatives lead as election enters final week,” 20 October 2026: 1,154 people online, weighted to 1,000, 15 to 19 October; decided voters, Conservatives 43, BC NDP 38, BC Greens 12. Its first campaign poll, at the end of September, had the NDP two points ahead. innovativeresearch.ca
- ↩ Mainstreet Research, “Greens rising, NDP diving,” 21 October 2026, and its public report: 907 people by automated telephone, 17 to 18 October, margin of error 3.3 points; Conservatives 41.7, BC NDP 36.0, BC Greens 14.6, OneBC 5.0, CentreBC 2.6, with undecided voters removed. Its wave of 30 September to 1 October had 44.7, 37.2 and 11.2. mainstreetresearch.ca
- ↩ Backcountry Coalition, our comparison of Gordon Skulnec and Brittny Anderson in Kootenay Central: Skulnec, who grew up in Trail and served 17 years in the RCMP, told the BC Wildlife Federation he supports legislating public access to Crown land; in 68 speaking turns in this Parliament, Anderson never raised forest roads. Portraits: Conservative Party of BC; BC NDP. backcountry.cx
- ↩ Backcountry Coalition, our comparison of Donegal Wilson and Roly Russell in Boundary-Similkameen. Portraits: Conservative Party of BC; BC NDP. backcountry.cx
- ↩ Backcountry Coalition, on the BC Snowmobile Federation’s election survey, published by the federation on 16 October 2026: official answers from the Conservative Party of BC and the BC Green Party, “No official party response” from the BC NDP, and answers from two NDP candidates, Binny Boparai and Roly Russell, on their own. backcountry.cx
- ↩ Backcountry Coalition, our comparison of Scott McInnis and Andrea Dunlop in Columbia River-Revelstoke. Portraits: Conservative Party of BC; BC NDP. backcountry.cx
- ↩ Backcountry Coalition, our comparison of Warren Mirko and Steve Morissette in Kootenay-Monashee: thirty-three forest roads in the riding closed or retired since 2020. Portraits: Conservative Party of BC; BC NDP. backcountry.cx
- ↩ Backcountry Coalition, our comparison of Josie Osborne and Joshua Dahling in Mid Island-Pacific Rim: Highway 4 closed by the Cameron Bluffs wildfire from 6 to 23 June 2023, and the detour on forest service and industrial roads. backcountry.cx
- ↩ Backcountry Coalition, our comparison of Kevin Acton and Harwinder Sandhu in Vernon-Lumby. backcountry.cx
- ↩ Conservative Party of BC, “Lorne Doerkson’s Plan for a Stronger BC,” 71 pages, 18 October 2026, p.46: “Restore equal access to Crown land and provincial parks.” conservativebc.ca (PDF)
- ↩ BC NDP, platform web page, read 18 October 2026: “Partner with Prime Minister Carney to protect 30% of B.C.’s land by 2030, conserve the environment, protect wildlife habitat, and preserve public access.” bcndp.ca/plan
- ↩ Backcountry Coalition, on the BC NDP’s 30 by 30 promise, 19 October 2026: the 2023 tripartite agreement behind the target never mentions public access and says it is not legally binding. backcountry.cx
- ↩ Backcountry Coalition, our reading of the Conservative costing, 19 October 2026: no line for forest service roads, Recreation Sites and Trails, trails or Target 8; $7 million a year for “Pride in our parks”; and our illustrative road-and-recreation line of $29.6 million a year, about 1.5 per cent of the plan’s $2 billion-a-year contingency cut. backcountry.cx
- ↩ Backcountry Coalition, our reading of the BC NDP costing, 15 October 2026: it drops the party’s 2024 promise to fund access roads and trails, keeps Budget 2026’s cut to BC Parks and Recreation Sites and Trails, and gives Target 8 no money, no date and no owner. backcountry.cx
- ↩ Backcountry Coalition, the two costed plans side by side, 19 October 2026: neither plan funds the roads or trails. Portraits: Lorne Doerkson by RoyalObserver, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; David Eby, 2022, by the BC NDP via Flickr, CC BY 2.0; both cropped. backcountry.cx
- ↩ Backcountry Coalition, on Target 8, 17 October 2026: the target in Look West, the Province’s May 2026 outdoor recreation strategy, promises “a modernized framework for high-value recreation access and resource roads” and names no minister, budget or date. backcountry.cx
- ↩ Backcountry Coalition, on the Ministry of Forests’ plan for about 400 parcels of Crown land committed for transfer, 16 October 2026: across 40 pages the documents never mention public access. backcountry.cx
- ↩ Backcountry Coalition, every candidate on the ballot, rated on public access to public land, with a riding map. backcountry.cx
- ↩ Elections BC, 2026 Provincial General Election: advance voting from 16 to 21 October 2026, Final Voting Day on 24 October 2026, and the Where to Vote application. wheretovote.elections.bc.ca
Projections were read on 21 October 2026 and compared with the version of 16 October; polls and turnout were read the same day. Words are quoted exactly as published; the highlights are ours. Changes, counts and averages are our arithmetic on 338Canada’s figures. Portraits: Lorne Doerkson by RoyalObserver, CC BY-SA 4.0; David Eby by the BC NDP, CC BY 2.0; the six riding candidates from their parties’ candidate pages.