Snow-covered peaks of the Valhalla Range rising above dark forest under a deep blue sky.

Valhalla Range, West Kootenay · Photo: Murray Foubister, CC BY-SA 2.0

EDITORIAL · THE 2026 ELECTION · THE SWING RIDINGS

In 2024 the NDP kept its majority by 22 votes. These 36 ridings are close again, and every vote counts.

In 2024 a recount in Surrey-Guildford gave the BC NDP its 47th seat, and its majority, by 22 votes. This time, 36 ridings from North Island to the Kootenays are within eight points on 338Canada’s projection, and eleven of them are toss-ups. Here is every one, closest first, with what the NDP incumbents in them did when voters tried to talk to them, and our side-by-side comparison of the candidates in 29 of them. Every riding is on our B.C. Votes 2026 hub.

Backcountry Coalition · 19 October 2026 Email

On 8 November 2024, almost three weeks after British Columbia voted, a judge of the BC Supreme Court finished a recount in Surrey-Guildford. Garry Begg, the BC NDP candidate, had 8,947 votes. The Conservative candidate had 8,925. CBC News reported that, with those 22 votes, David Eby’s New Democrats had “held onto their one-seat majority.”¹

The NDP had won 47 of the 93 seats, exactly the number a majority needs. Across the province it finished 33,426 votes ahead of the Conservatives, out of more than two million cast.²

Two years later the province is voting again, and it is close again. In its 16 October update, 338Canada projects 52 seats for the Conservatives and 39 for the BC NDP, but its range runs from 25 to 53 seats for the NDP and from 38 to 67 for the Conservatives. Both ranges cross the 47-seat line.³

We read the projection for every riding and kept each one where the BC NDP and the Conservatives are within eight points of each other, or where 338Canada calls the seat a toss-up. Thirty-seven ridings qualify. One of them, Saanich North and the Islands, is a BC Green seat where the NDP and the Conservatives are tied for second at 29%, so it is a different race. The other 36 are straight fights between the NDP and the Conservatives.⁴

The NDP won 26 of those 36 seats in 2024, which is more than half of the 47 that gave it a majority. Thirteen of the 36 were decided by fewer than 500 votes.⁵

In our view, these 36 ridings decide whether the NDP keeps power. In every one of them, every vote counts.

01 We compared the candidates in 29 close seats. Find yours.

In each of these ridings we set the Conservative and NDP candidates side by side: what each says about the issues the riding is voting on, in their own words, and what the record shows. Pick your riding below. Every one of B.C.’s 93 ridings, with all its candidates, is on our B.C. Votes 2026 hub.

02 Thirty-six ridings are within eight points, and 338Canada calls eleven of them toss-ups

The chart puts all 36 in order, from the closest race to the widest. Where the two lines overlap, the projection cannot separate the candidates. Tap any riding to see both main candidates, 338Canada’s odds and how close the seat was in 2024.⁴⁵⁶

**The 36 close ridings, closest first**338Canada projection, 16 October 2026. Each dot is the projected vote; the line is 338’s margin of error. Tap a riding for the candidates, the odds and the 2024 result.

Projected vote and margin of error: 338Canada, 16 October 2026. 2024 results: Elections BC. NDP candidates’ records: our reading of their campaign accounts. Portraits: BC NDP and Conservative Party of BC.⁴⁵⁷

The pattern runs across the whole province. Eleven seats are rated toss-ups, and they are spread from Comox to Nelson and from Vernon to downtown Vancouver. No single region decides this election. Wherever you live in these ridings, the outcome is within reach.

03 On Vancouver Island, four seats were decided by fewer than 1,000 votes in 2024, and three of them are toss-ups now

Juan de Fuca-Malahat went to Dana Lajeunesse, the NDP’s Parliamentary Secretary for Accessibility, by 141 votes in 2024. 338Canada now has the Conservatives at 36% and the NDP at 34%, and rates it a toss-up. Courtenay-Comox was decided by 93 votes and is a toss-up again, with the Conservatives at 38% and the NDP at 36%. In Cowichan Valley the NDP is at 38% and the Conservatives at 37%. North Island leans Conservative, 45% to 42%.⁵⁴

Further up the island the NDP leads, but by less than 338’s margin of error. Stephanie Higginson in Ladysmith-Oceanside is at 47% to 43% against Kris McNichol. Josie Osborne, the Minister of Finance, is at 45% to 41% in Mid Island-Pacific Rim against Joshua Dahling. George Anderson in Nanaimo-Lantzville is at 46% to 41% against Kelsey Pringle, and on the Sunshine Coast, Powell River-Sunshine Coast is 46% to 39%.⁴⁶

These are the incumbents asking the island to trust them again. Here is what we found when we read their campaign accounts.⁷⁸

Dana LajeunesseParliamentary Secretary for Accessibility · Juan de Fuca-Malahat

Under 67 of his campaign posts we read 680 comments and found one reply from him, and it was thanks or small talk. He never answered a critic or a question with substance, so he fails our grade.

Debra ToporowskiParliamentary Secretary for Rural Health · Cowichan Valley

Limited who could comment on 15 of her 21 Facebook campaign posts. She replied twice, never to answer a critic or a question, and fails our grade.

Josie OsborneMinister of Finance (since 14 Aug 2026; Health before that) · Mid Island-Pacific Rim

Limited who could reply on 20 of the 71 campaign posts we read. Her posts on X drew 1,539 replies; in 615 comments on Facebook and Instagram we found one reply from her, to a supporter. She fails our grade.

Stephanie HigginsonParliamentary Secretary for Primary Care Access · Ladysmith-Oceanside

Answered no one on X under campaign posts that drew 646 replies. She fails our grade.

Randene NeillMinister of Water, Land and Resource Stewardship · Powell River-Sunshine Coast

In 90 comments under 17 of her campaign posts we found no reply from her. She fails our grade.

Riding	338 rating	BC NDP	Conservative	2024 winner, margin	Our comparison
Cowichan Valley	Toss-up	38% Debra Toporowski	37% Conservative	NDP by 849
Courtenay-Comox	Toss-up	36% Will Cole-Hamilton	38% Conservative	Conservative by 93
Juan de Fuca-Malahat	Toss-up	34% Dana Lajeunesse	36% Conservative	NDP by 141
North Island	Conservative leaning	42% Sara Lopez	45% Conservative	Conservative by 639
Ladysmith-Oceanside	NDP leaning	47% Stephanie Higginson	43% Kris McNichol	NDP by 2,047	Compare →
Mid Island-Pacific Rim	NDP leaning	45% Josie Osborne	41% Joshua Dahling	NDP by 2,676	Compare →
Nanaimo-Lantzville	NDP leaning	46% George Anderson	41% Kelsey Pringle	NDP by 3,620	Compare →
Powell River-Sunshine Coast	NDP leaning	46% Randene Neill	39% Conservative	NDP by 4,065

04 Surrey gave the NDP its majority by 22 votes, and seven Surrey seats are within reach again

Surrey-Guildford is the seat from the recount. Garry Begg, the NDP’s Parliamentary Secretary for Surrey Infrastructure, is running again, and 338Canada now has the Conservatives ahead, 48% to 43%, with Garry Thind as their candidate. Surrey City Centre was decided by 232 votes in 2024 and is a toss-up, 48% to 45%, between Amna Shah and Zeeshan Wahla. Surrey-Newton and Surrey-Fleetwood are toss-ups too.⁵⁴⁶

Jessie Sunner, the Minister of Post-Secondary Education and Future Skills, is in one of them. She posted during the campaign that “People deserve candidates who show up and answer questions.” Her campaign posts on X drew 1,888 replies, and she answered none of them.⁷⁸

Jessie SunnerMinister of Post-Secondary Education and Future Skills (since 17 Jul 2025) · Surrey-Newton

Limited who could reply on 16 of the 52 campaign posts we read. Answered no one on X under posts that drew 1,888 replies. She fails our grade. Projected 48% to 47% against Harj Dhaliwal.

Jagrup BrarMinister of Mining and Critical Minerals · Surrey-Fleetwood

Limited who could reply on 14 of the 74 campaign posts we read, and answered no one on X under posts that drew 1,441 replies. He fails our grade. Projected 44% to 42% for Garry Purewal.

Amna ShahParliamentary Secretary for Anti-Racism Initiatives, and for Mental Health and Addictions · Surrey City Centre

Answered no one on X under posts that drew 1,293 replies, and in 222 Facebook and Instagram comments we found no reply from her. She fails our grade.

Garry BeggParliamentary Secretary for Surrey Infrastructure · Surrey-Guildford

Answered no one on X under campaign posts that drew 2,956 replies. He fails our grade.

Lisa BeareMinister of Education and Child Care · Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows

In 187 comments under her campaign posts we found no reply from her. She fails our grade. Projected 48% to 45% against Doug Morneau, a toss-up.

Three Surrey seats the Conservatives won in 2024 are close as well. In Surrey-Serpentine River the margin was 435 votes, and Jessy Sahota is projected at 48% to 42% against the NDP’s Sikander Kang, who limited who could reply on 19 of his 23 Facebook campaign posts. Surrey-Cloverdale, where Nicholas Cartmell runs for the Conservatives, is 47% to 39%; the NDP’s Stephen Dooley limited replies on 36 of the 46 posts we read. Surrey-Panorama, decided by 263 votes in 2024, is 50% to 43%, and Jinny Sims, the NDP candidate there, limited comments on 32 of her 35 Facebook posts.⁵⁴⁷

Delta North is an open seat now that Ravi Kahlon is not running, and the NDP leads Monica Mohan 50% to 46%. Maple Ridge East, decided by 97 votes in 2024, leans Conservative, 47% to 41%.⁴⁵

Riding	338 rating	BC NDP	Conservative	2024 winner, margin	Our comparison
Surrey-Newton	Toss-up	48% Jessie Sunner	47% Harj Dhaliwal	NDP by 1,266	Compare →
Surrey-Fleetwood	Toss-up	42% Jagrup Brar	44% Garry Purewal	NDP by 753	Compare →
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows	Toss-up	48% Lisa Beare	45% Doug Morneau	NDP by 2,579	Compare →
Surrey City Centre	Toss-up	45% Amna Shah	48% Zeeshan Wahla	NDP by 232	Compare →
Delta North	NDP leaning	50% Todd Schierling	46% Monica Mohan	NDP by 2,607	Compare →
Surrey-Guildford	Conservative leaning	43% Garry Begg	48% Garry Thind	NDP by 22	Compare →
Maple Ridge East	Conservative leaning	41% Hudson Campbell	47% Conservative	Conservative by 97
Surrey-Serpentine River	Conservative leaning	42% Sikander Kang	48% Jessy Sahota	Conservative by 435	Compare →
Surrey-Panorama	Conservative leaning	43% Jinny Sims	50% Conservative	Conservative by 263
Surrey-Cloverdale	Conservative likely	39% Stephen Dooley	47% Nicholas Cartmell	Conservative by 586	Compare →

05 All eight Burnaby and Tri-Cities seats on this list are NDP seats, and one of them is a toss-up

Burnaby South-Metrotown is the closest seat in the region: Paul Choi, the NDP’s Parliamentary Secretary for Trade, is at 44% and David Xie, the Conservative, at 43%. In Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, which Jodie Wickens held by 368 votes in 2024, the Conservatives’ Ryan Peterson now leads 49% to 45%.⁴⁵

The other six lean NDP by five to eight points: Burnaby East, Burnaby North, Burnaby Centre, Port Moody-Burquitlam, Coquitlam-Maillardville and Mike Farnworth’s Port Coquitlam. In every one of them, the two parties’ ranges on 338’s margin of error overlap.⁴

Jodie WickensMinister of Children and Family Development · Coquitlam-Burke Mountain

Limited who could reply on 15 of the 21 campaign posts we read, and we found no reply from her. She fails our grade.

Paul ChoiParliamentary Secretary for Trade · Burnaby South-Metrotown

In 13 comments under 11 of his campaign posts we found no reply from him, and he answered no one on X. He fails our grade.

Janet RoutledgeBackbench · Burnaby North

Limited who could reply on 6 of the 45 campaign posts we read, and we found no reply from her. She fails our grade.

Mike FarnworthMinister of Transportation and Transit · Port Coquitlam

Answered no one on X under campaign posts that drew 1,983 replies. He fails our grade.

Not every incumbent fails. Jennifer Blatherwick, the Parliamentary Secretary for Gender Equity in Coquitlam-Maillardville, kept replies open and answered a question with substance, and she is one of only two NDP incumbents who pass our grade.⁸

Riding	338 rating	BC NDP	Conservative	2024 winner, margin	Our comparison
Burnaby South-Metrotown	Toss-up	44% Paul Choi	43% David Xie	NDP by 1,187	Compare →
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain	Conservative leaning	45% Jodie Wickens	49% Ryan Peterson	NDP by 368	Compare →
Burnaby East	NDP leaning	46% Rohini Reah Arora	41% Peter Si	NDP by 2,292	Compare →
Burnaby North	NDP leaning	49% Janet Routledge	44% Simon Chandler	NDP by 2,066	Compare →
Port Moody-Burquitlam	NDP leaning	46% Rick Glumac	41% John McEwen	NDP by 2,995	Compare →
Burnaby Centre	NDP leaning	50% Anne Kang	44% Joshua Domnich	NDP by 2,486	Compare →
Coquitlam-Maillardville	NDP leaning	49% Jennifer Blatherwick	42% Matt Liang	NDP by 2,826	Compare →
Port Coquitlam	NDP leaning	48% Mike Farnworth	40% Keenan Adams	NDP by 3,876	Compare →

06 In Vancouver-Yaletown the projection is a tie, and the minister there limited replies on every post we read

Terry Yung, the Minister of State for Community Safety, held Vancouver-Yaletown by 1,161 votes in 2024. 338Canada now has him at 44% and Margareta Dovgal, the Conservative, at 44%. The BC NDP’s own page says he worked with residents “to make sure their voices were heard.” On all 16 of his campaign posts that we read, on Instagram and X, he limited who could reply.⁴⁵⁷

Terry YungMinister of State for Community Safety and Integrated Services · Vancouver-Yaletown

Limited who could reply on 16 of 16 campaign posts we read. He fails our grade.

Vancouver-Langara was decided by 419 votes in 2024. Jaime Stein, the Conservative, now leads Sunita Dhir 46% to 43%. In Richmond-Steveston, an open seat decided by 484 votes, Gordon Zhang leads the NDP’s Bruce Kong 48% to 44%.⁵⁴⁶

Sunita DhirParliamentary Secretary for International Credentials · Vancouver-Langara

Limited who could comment on 25 of her 29 Instagram campaign posts, and replied three times without answering a critic or a question. She fails our grade.

Riding	338 rating	BC NDP	Conservative	2024 winner, margin	Our comparison
Vancouver-Yaletown	Toss-up	44% Terry Yung	44% Margareta Dovgal	NDP by 1,161	Compare →
Vancouver-Langara	Conservative leaning	43% Sunita Dhir	46% Jaime Stein	NDP by 419	Compare →
Richmond-Steveston	Conservative leaning	44% Bruce Kong	48% Gordon Zhang	NDP by 484	Compare →

07 From Vernon to Nelson, seven Interior seats are close, and two of them are toss-ups

Kootenay Central is a toss-up: Brittny Anderson, the Minister of State for Local Governments and Rural Communities, is at 38% and Gordon Skulnec, the Conservative, at 36%. We have profiled Gordon Skulnec, a former RCMP officer from Trail, and reported what Nelson residents are saying about Anderson’s service.⁴⁹¹⁰

Brittny AndersonMinister of State for Local Governments and Rural Communities · Kootenay Central

Limited who could comment on 11 of the 82 campaign posts we read. She answers critics often, but fails our grade because she limited replies.

In Kootenay-Monashee the NDP leads 45% to 40%. Steve Morissette, the Parliamentary Secretary for Rural Development, faces Warren Mirko, whose Public Land Use Society fought for the Incomappleux and Rady Creek before he had a seat. We found no record of Morissette speaking about the forest roads lost in his riding.⁴¹¹¹²

Steve MorissetteParliamentary Secretary for Rural Development · Kootenay-Monashee

Limited who could comment on 35 of the 41 Facebook campaign posts we read, more than any other sitting NDP MLA on this list. He fails our grade.

Vernon-Lumby, which the NDP held by 476 votes, is a toss-up with Kevin Acton, the Conservative, at 47% and Harwinder Sandhu, the Parliamentary Secretary for Agriculture, at 44%. Sandhu limited who could comment on 9 of the 104 posts we read.⁴⁵⁷

Three Conservative-held seats are close as well. Penticton-Summerland, decided by 317 votes in 2024, has Tracy St Claire at 47% and the NDP’s Tina Lee at 41%. Donegal Wilson in Boundary-Similkameen is at 52% to 44%, and Scott McInnis in Columbia River-Revelstoke at 49% to 41%. Kelowna Centre was decided by 40 votes in 2024, and leans Conservative, 50% to 45%.⁵⁴

Riding	338 rating	BC NDP	Conservative	2024 winner, margin	Our comparison
Kootenay Central	Toss-up	38% Brittny Anderson	36% Gordon Skulnec	NDP by 1,749	Compare →
Vernon-Lumby	Toss-up	44% Harwinder Sandhu	47% Kevin Acton	NDP by 476	Compare →
Kelowna Centre	Conservative leaning	45% Loyal Wooldridge	50% Conservative	Conservative by 40
Kootenay-Monashee	NDP leaning	45% Steve Morissette	40% Warren Mirko	NDP by 2,586	Compare →
Penticton-Summerland	Conservative leaning	41% Tina Lee	47% Tracy St Claire	Conservative by 317	Compare →
Boundary-Similkameen	Conservative leaning	44% Roly Russell	52% Donegal Wilson	Conservative by 1,438	Compare →
Columbia River-Revelstoke	Conservative leaning	41% Andrea Dunlop	49% Scott McInnis	Conservative by 670	Compare →

08 In 2024, twelve voters in Surrey-Guildford changing their minds would have ended the NDP’s majority

Thirteen of these 36 ridings were decided by fewer than 500 votes in 2024. Across all thirteen, 3,387 votes separated the winner from the runner-up. The NDP won seven of them, and it needed every one.⁵²

A few hundred votes is a handful of apartment buildings or one small town. It is the neighbours who meant to vote and didn’t. In Surrey-Guildford it was 22 people.¹

Advance voting runs from 16 to 21 October, and Final Voting Day is 24 October. Elections BC’s Where to Vote app shows the voting places near you.¹³

In 2024 the NDP kept its majority by 22 votes. In our view, these 36 ridings decide whether it keeps power, and every vote counts.

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In 2024 a judge’s recount in Surrey-Guildford handed the BC NDP its majority by 22 votes. This year 36 ridings are close enough to decide it again.

On 338Canada’s 16 October projection, those 36 ridings are within eight points between the NDP and the Conservatives, and eleven of them are toss-ups.

The NDP won 26 of the 36 in 2024, more than half of the 47 seats that gave it its majority. Thirteen were decided by fewer than 500 votes.

We list every one, closest first, with what the NDP incumbents did when voters tried to talk to them. In Vancouver-Yaletown the projection is a tie, and Terry Yung, the Minister of State for Community Safety, limited who could reply on every campaign post we read.

We compared the candidates side by side in 29 of the closest seats. Find yours on the page.

If your riding is on the list, your vote and your neighbours’ votes could decide who governs. In our view, these 36 ridings decide whether the NDP keeps power.

Advance voting runs until 21 October, and Final Voting Day is 24 October.

🔗 backcountry.cx/editorials/bc-swing-ridings-2026/

#BCpoli #BCElection #BCVotes2026 #Surrey

Sources

↩ CBC News, 8 November 2024, “NDP majority holds with 22-vote victory in Surrey-Guildford recount”: Justice Kevin D. Loo of the B.C. Supreme Court declared Garry Begg elected with 8,947 votes to the Conservative candidate’s 8,925, and Premier David Eby’s New Democrats “held onto their one-seat majority.” cbc.ca
↩ Elections BC, Statement of Votes, 43rd Provincial General Election, 19 October 2024: 93 seats, 47 needed for a majority; BC NDP 47 seats and 944,579 votes, Conservative Party 44 seats and 911,153 votes, BC Greens 2 seats; 2,105,341 valid votes. elections.bc.ca
↩ 338Canada, “Electoral District Projections — British Columbia,” latest update 16 October 2026, read 18 October 2026: Conservatives 52 seats (range 38 to 67), BC NDP 39 (range 25 to 53); majority 47 seats. 338canada.com
↩ 338Canada riding pages, latest update 16 October 2026, read 18 October 2026: the projected vote with its margin of error, the rating and the odds of winning for each of the 37 ridings where the BC NDP and the Conservatives are within 8 points or the seat is rated a toss-up. Each riding in the chart links to its page. 338canada.com
↩ Elections BC, Statement of Votes, 43rd Provincial General Election, 19 October 2024, final results for each riding; the margins in the chart and the tables are the winner’s votes minus the runner-up’s. elections.bc.ca
↩ Elections BC, 2026 Provincial General Election candidate list, read 18 October 2026, for the BC NDP and Conservative candidates in each riding. elections.bc.ca
↩ Backcountry Coalition, “The BC NDP say they’re listening and want your vote. But they don’t want to allow your voice if it disagrees, especially on social media,” 18 October 2026: for each BC NDP candidate, the campaign posts we read since 22 September and the number on which replies were limited, with the platform’s own wording; and the party’s page for Terry Yung. backcountry.cx
↩ Backcountry Coalition, our grading of the 41 BC NDP MLAs running again, from their campaign accounts on X, Facebook and Instagram, 22 September to 17 October 2026. Each was graded Pass or Fail on four measures (present, open to replies, answers critics with substance, writes their own posts); an incumbent who answered no one, or limited who could answer, fails, and a reply we could not read earns no credit. Thirty-nine of the 41 fail.
↩ Backcountry Coalition, “Gordon Skulnec says too many of us are being pushed off the land. If you want to beat Brittny Anderson, he’s the vote,” 18 October 2026. backcountry.cx
↩ Backcountry Coalition, “Brittny Anderson keeps posting endorsements, but here’s what Nelson is saying about her service as MLA,” 18 October 2026. backcountry.cx
↩ Backcountry Coalition, “Steve Morissette has been his government’s voice for rural development. On the forest roads lost in his own riding, we could find no record of him saying a word,” 10 October 2026. backcountry.cx
↩ Backcountry Coalition, “Warren Mirko didn’t wait for a seat to fight for the Incomappleux and Rady Creek,” 11 October 2026. backcountry.cx
↩ Elections BC, “2026 Provincial Election,” read 17 October 2026: “Final Voting Day is October 24, 2026”; advance voting October 16 to 21, 2026; and the Where to Vote application, which “shows district electoral offices, advance voting places, and voting places for Final Voting Day.” elections.bc.ca

Projections were read from 338Canada on 18 October 2026 (latest update 16 October). Portraits: BC NDP and Conservative Party of BC candidate pages.