Eby says capping Big Oil’s profits puts $20 back in every tank. His costing pays for a tax cut until March and books nothing for the cap.

In a video the BC NDP posted to Facebook in the last days of the campaign, David Eby, the party’s leader and the premier, looks into the camera beside a cartoon gas pump that reads 208.8. The caption under him says “gas goes up 36 cents a litre.” The post above it makes the promise in capital letters: “David Eby is CAPPING Big Oil’s profits. That’s $20 back every tank.”¹

BC NDP · Facebook reel · read 23 October 2026

“David Eby is CAPPING Big Oil’s profits. That’s $20 back every tank”

On screen: “gas goes up 36 cents a litre.” At the time we read it the reel had about 1,000 likes, 1,100 comments and 66 shares.

It is a strong promise, and drivers paying more than two dollars a litre have every reason to want it kept. It is also two promises folded into one line, and only one of them appears in the party’s costing. Below, we take the $20 apart, price each part, ask who pays for it, and ask what it would do for the people who reach British Columbia’s backcountry on a tank of gas.

01 The NDP’s $20 is a 68-litre tank at 30 cents a litre. Ten cents is a tax cut, and twenty depend on the cap.

The party’s plan names the two parts. The first is to “Suspend 10 cents per litre of the provincial motor fuel tax on gasoline and diesel to provide immediate relief at the pump.” The second is to “Establish a "price guard" empowering the BC Utilities Commission to enforce strict pricing rules and cap excess profit margins.” Then it adds them up: “Taken together, these actions will provide direct relief at the pumps – saving drivers up to 30 cents a litre and $20 per tank for an average family vehicle.”²

The arithmetic is on the party’s own fill-up calculator. It assumes a 68-litre tank and savings of “up to 30 cents a litre,” and 68 litres at 30 cents is $20.40. Eby set out the split himself in Surrey on 1 October: “With a 10-cent gas tax cut, plus the 20-cent margin reined in by the utilities commission, British Columbians will save about $20 on an average fill-up.”^3,4

So the video gives the cap credit for the whole $20, and by the party’s own numbers it accounts for $13.60 of it. The other $6.80 is an ordinary tax cut. Both parts carry the words “up to,” and the cap’s 20 cents assumes that every cent of this year’s higher margins is excess the commission can order away.

02 The 36 cents in Eby’s video matches the BC Utilities Commission’s own count. Most of the rise came from crude oil and refining, not from the station.

The frame of the video does not say where its 36 cents comes from, but the number matches the BC Utilities Commission’s September newsletter. “The average retail price for regular gasoline in BC increased by 36 cents per litre to $1.91 from the first quarter of 2026.” the commission wrote. “This was primarily due to a 22-cent increase in the cost of crude oil, a 19-cent increase in the refining margin, and one-cent increase in the retail margin. These increases were partially offset by a six-cent decrease in taxes.”^1,6

That is where the NDP’s 20 cents comes from: 19 cents of refining margin and one cent at the station. The party’s release puts it this way: “Oil and gas companies then used the conflict to unfairly inflate their margins by 20 cents a litre at the expense of drivers and truckers.” It says the figure is “based on the latest data from the BC Utilities Commission.” The release also says gouging cost British Columbians “an estimated $865 million.” We could not find that figure in the commission’s published reports, and the party has not shown how it was calculated.^2,6

The commission itself has not called it gouging. Its staff found that “the March 2026 increase in BC’s fuel pump prices was predominantly due to a surge in the cost of crude oil and supply constraints caused by refinery closures, maintenance, and pipeline disruptions on the U.S. West Coast.” In September it reported, citing the International Energy Agency, that refinery outages from the Gulf to California “pushed refinery margins to four-year highs in July,” and that B.C.’s retail margin was low by national standards: “BC’s retail margin for regular gasoline was one cent per litre lower than in Alberta and three cents lower than the Canadian average.” It says what it would do next: “Should the BCUC observe any atypical behaviours in fuel pricing and margins, the BCUC will require further reporting, and may take further steps, such as reporting to the BC Government.”^6,7

That matters for the cap. B.C.’s two refineries supply less than half of the gasoline and diesel the province uses, and nearly 95 per cent of the fuel brought in comes from Alberta. The margin the NDP wants to cap is mostly earned upstream, much of it outside the province, while the station’s share went up by a cent.⁶

03 The NDP would hand the commission a power it says it does not have. The party has not said how the cap would work outside the cities.

On its own fuel-price website the commission is plain about its role: “The BCUC does not regulate fuel prices in BC.” It collects and publishes data under the Fuel Price Transparency Act, which followed its 2019 inquiry into gasoline prices. A price cap would be a new job.⁷

Eby described the job in Surrey. His government would ask the commission to set the maximum price that stations can charge, The Canadian Press reported, updated weekly as the benchmark price for crude oil moves. He said government had to use its force.⁸

Four provinces already do something like this. The Atlantic provinces have regulated gasoline prices for two decades or more, each through a utility board, and the way they handle distance is the part that matters most for rural drivers.

Atlantic provinces: Canada Energy Regulator, 2017. B.C.: the BC NDP’s release and The Canadian Press. The party has not published how B.C.’s maximum would be calculated, whether it would vary by region, what margin it would allow a station, or what the commission would need in staff and law to run it.^2,8,9

04 Economists doubt a cap can hold down a world price. Where caps have run for years, the record is argued over, and rural stations are the part that held up.

Werner Antweiler, an economist at the University of British Columbia, told the Vancouver Sun the cap was unlikely to make much difference and that the tax cut would cost the province revenue it needs.⁴

Andrey Pavlov, an economist at Simon Fraser University, agreed that price caps could make shortages worse, but he thought the tax cut would help households without making people drive more: “What it does make a big difference is for the overall financial situation of people.” Ryan Mitton, the Canadian Federation of Independent Business’s director of legislative affairs for B.C., welcomed the tax cut and cited a survey in which 57 per cent of small business owners called the fuel tax a constraint.⁴

Atlantic Canada’s experience is contested. The Atlantic Institute for Market Studies, which argues for ending regulation, estimated in 2017 that it cost Atlantic drivers $205 million more than they would have paid without it, and up to 2.5 cents a litre in Nova Scotia. “We need to measure policies on what they achieve, not what they intend to achieve,” said its author, Marco Navarro-Génie.¹⁰

Nova Scotia’s own two-year review, by the consultant Gardner Pinfold, read the same years the other way: “A two-year review of gas regulation indicates that gas prices are more stable and predictable, rural gas stations are more protected and regional gas price differences are minimal.” It found that “the number of rural retail gas station closures has reduced dramatically.” Nova Scotia sets prices in six zones. Whatever else is argued about Atlantic regulation, the rural stations are the part its supporters point to.^9,11

05 The NDP’s costing books $280 million for the tax cut this year and nothing after March. The cap has no line at all.

The two-page costing the NDP released on 14 October has one fuel line, “Gas Tax Suspension,” at $280 million in 2026/27 and a dash in each of the two years after. Its note explains the dash: “Gas Tax Suspension projections align with the federal government’s suspension of the federal excise tax on gasoline and diesel that is scheduled to continue until March 31, 2027.” The party says it will watch the war and the trade war “and extend the measures as needed.”⁵

Eby had put the cost at about $250 million when he announced it. At 10 cents a litre, $280 million is the tax on 2.8 billion litres of fuel. The federal excise suspension the costing lines up with now runs to 31 January 2027, with half the federal tax charged from February to the end of March, and after March 2027 the costing sets aside nothing for the provincial cut unless the NDP decides to extend it.^7,8

The cap does not appear in the costing at all. There is no revenue line, no cost line and no money for the commission to run a weekly price-setting system, which the Atlantic boards do with staff and consultants. If a cap lowered pump prices it would cost the treasury little directly, but a new regulatory office is not free, and the costing does not say what it would need.⁵

06 In 2026/27 the gas-tax cut costs more than the NDP’s tax on top earners raises. The deficit is still $13.75 billion.

The costing opens with a promise about who pays: “We are asking the top 3.88% of income earners to contribute a little more so that we can strengthen public, universal healthcare for everyone.” In 2026/27 that tax increase raises $225 million. The gas-tax cut costs $280 million, and it is $280 million of the $302.4 million in new spending the costing books for the year. No new health-care money is booked until 2027/28.⁵

The rest of this year’s new revenue is $345 million of “Targeted Economic Growth (Major Project FIDs),” revenue the NDP expects from projects such as LNG Canada’s second phase. Over three years the top-earner tax raises $2,150 million, the housing taxes $126.7 million and the major-project line $1,755 million. After all of it, the costing’s own deficit is $13,752.4 million this year, $12,653.6 million next year and $11,969.8 million in 2028/29.⁵

The tax being cut also matters. Outside Metro Vancouver and Victoria, the provincial motor fuel tax on gasoline is 14.5 cents a litre, of which 6.75 cents goes to the B.C. Transportation Financing Authority. In the Vancouver area it is 27 cents, of which only 1.75 cents goes to general revenue and 18.5 cents to TransLink. The NDP has not said which of those taxes the 10 cents would come from. The BC Green Party pointed out that “the BC NDP had previously refused to suspend the gas tax because the revenue was needed for services like public transit.”^12,13

07 Lorne Doerkson’s Conservatives offer no fuel-tax cut and no cap. Their answer to the same driver is a $2.9 billion income-tax cut.

Lorne Doerkson, the Conservatives’ interim leader, answered the promise on the day by pointing to Eby’s $1,000 grocery rebate from the 2024 campaign, which the government later said it could not pay because of the deficit. He also said, the Sun reported, that any savings from lower fuel prices should go to British Columbians and not to oil companies.^4,8

The Conservative costing has no fuel-tax line and no price measure. On fuel it says only that “The consumer carbon tax is gone; the rest of the program remains.” Its offer to drivers, as to everyone, is a $1,000 income-tax cut, made by raising the basic personal amount from $13,216 to $32,000, at about $2.9 billion a year and permanent. That is ten times the size of the NDP’s one-year gas-tax cut. It reaches a rural driver whether or not they buy fuel, and it does nothing about the price at the pump.¹⁴

Emily Lowan, the BC Green leader, said the NDP was proposing to “tinker around the edges” and called for a windfall tax on oil and gas profits instead.⁴

08 Backcountry drivers reach Crown land on fuel. A cap could ease their costs, or squeeze the small stations they depend on.

Hunters, anglers, sledders, ATV riders and the families who camp at recreation sites reach the backcountry by truck, on highways and then on forest service roads, and fuel is the cost of every trip they take. A pickup that burns one 68-litre tank getting to the trailhead and back cost about $125 to fill at the Prince George average in September, and about $176 if it runs on diesel.¹⁵

The usual complaint that rural drivers pay more holds only in part. Natural Resources Canada’s averages show the regional centres paying less at the pump than Vancouver, mainly because they do not pay TransLink’s tax. The higher prices are in the small markets past those centres. In its 2024 study of 15 towns, the commission grouped Terrace, Williams Lake and Powell River together: “Retail stations in these municipalities sold lower volumes of gasoline and displayed higher than average retail margins.” It added: “Previous BCUC investigations concluded that retail stations in remote areas may have more asymmetrical pricing due to lower levels of competition or less frequent fuel resupply.”^15,16

Station owners in Quesnel told the commission that “big box competitors located in Prince George may be able to sell high volumes of fuel at lower margins than retail stations with smaller sales volumes.” On Haida Gwaii, the commission wrote that “Retail station owners report that higher site-specific operating costs and lower sales volumes per station also contribute to higher retail fuel prices.” Those are the last stations before a long gravel road, and they earn more per litre because they sell fewer litres.¹⁷

That is where the design of a cap decides who wins. A single province-wide maximum, the kind Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick use, would be set by the costs of big-volume city stations and would bite hardest at the low-volume station at the edge of the backcountry. A zoned maximum like Nova Scotia’s or Newfoundland and Labrador’s can allow for distance. The NDP has not said which it would use.⁹

09 In our view, the tax cut is real money and the cap is still a slogan. Neither party spends a dollar on the roads past the last pump.

The tax cut is real relief, and Eby has put a number on it and booked it. A driver who fills a 68-litre tank would save $6.80 a fill-up until the end of March. That is worth having, and the NDP deserves credit for costing it.

The cap is a different thing. It is two thirds of the $20 in the video, it has no line in the costing, and it has no published design. The commission’s own numbers say most of the margin it would target is earned by refiners, much of it outside the province, while B.C.’s station margins are below the national average. A cap that ignores distance could leave the backcountry driver with a cheaper sign in Vancouver and a closed pump in the last town before the forest service road.^6,9

The fiscal contrast is the part that should trouble anyone who drives to Crown land. The NDP can find $280 million for one year of cheaper fuel, about 17 times what the Province spent maintaining forest service roads in 2025/26 and more than nine times our estimate of a full roads-and-recreation line. Its costing still has $0 for those roads, for Recreation Sites and Trails, and for Target 8, the government’s own promise of “a modernized framework for high-value recreation access and resource roads.” The Conservatives’ $2.9 billion tax cut has no line for them either.^5,18,19,20

Twenty dollars off a tank does not help the driver whose road is closed. Price the cap, design it for rural stations, and fund the roads past the pump.

10 Eby made his promise beside a pump that read 208.8. The bill for it reads $280 million, until March.

The cartoon pump in the NDP’s video reads close to what Vancouver drivers have paid this month; the Natural Resources Canada average for October so far is 208.2 cents. In Prince George it is 187.2, and on the forest service road past the last station there is no price at all, because there is no pump.¹⁵

Before you vote, ask your NDP candidate two questions. Would the price guard set one price for the province or allow for distance, and what would it pay to keep the last rural station open? And if the party can find $280 million for cheaper gas, where is the line for the roads that gas is bought to drive on? Final Voting Day is 24 October.²¹